By Mark McGillivray (eds.)
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Extra resources for Achieving the Millennium Development Goals
Chapter 8 explores what impact, if any, Indian state government debts have on achieving the income poverty target of the MDGs. To fulfil this and many of the other MDG targets, national governments, especially in the developing world, have to undertake major investments in the social sector; but how much they will really be able to do so will depend on the conditions of their finances. The chapter finds that government investment in the social sector is extremely important for the Indian states in reducing poverty, but the government’s debt burden is actually stopping several states from attaining the poverty target.
4). Indeed, the rate of reduction in Africa has been insufficient to keep up with population growth, so the number of deaths is continuing to climb. As a result, Africa’s share of under-5 deaths is growing. In the case of infant deaths this trend represents a dramatic reversal. In the 1960s three-quarters of all infant deaths were in Asia, but by 2015 Africa will account for the majority, as it has done for child deaths for some years now. However, as with income poverty reduction, the rate of decline is rarely sufficient to meet the ambitious goal of a two-thirds reduction by 2015.
More sophisticated versions utilize multi-equation models. There are undoubted advantages to such models, which allow a wider range of policy simulations, but they are quite resource-intensive, the assumptions more hidden than is the case for simpler projections. Results from the most recent multi-equation model, the World Bank Maquette for MDG Simulations (MAMS), were not available at the time of writing, and such approaches are not the basis of the projections presented here. However, models allow the flexibility to vary the underlying assumptions and so conduct policy experiments.
Achieving the Millennium Development Goals by Mark McGillivray (eds.)